First, the PCB industry market size forecast
PCB is a bridge that carries electronic components and connects circuits. As the “mother of electronic products”, PCB is widely used in communications, consumer electronics, computers, automotive electronics, industrial control, medical equipment, defense and aerospace. Electronic components that are indispensable in information products.
The PCB industry is a relatively basic but important part of the IT industry. It is generally called the mother of IT. Due to the continuous development of downstream communications, consumer electronics, and automobiles, the industry still has 3-5 years of dividends.
The main raw materials in the upstream of the PCB industry chain are copper clad laminates, copper balls, copper foils, inks, etc., of which the copper clad board accounts for about 50% of the PCB material cost; the main raw materials for the upstream CCL industry are glass fiber cloth, wood pulp paper and copper foil. , epoxy resin and other materials, in which copper foil accounts for 80% of the proportion of materials.
From the perspective of product structure, the rigid board of the current PCB market still dominates, with multi-layer boards accounting for 39.4% and single- and dual-panel panels accounting for 4.9%; followed by flexible boards, accounting for 19.9%, HDI boards and package substrates respectively. The proportion was 14.8% and 12.1%.
The PCB industry has experienced several cycles, experiencing a rapid start-up period from 1980 to 1990 (CAGR = 15.9%), a sustained growth period from 1991 to 2000 (CAGR = 7.1%), and a period of large fluctuations (CAGR) from 2001 to 2010. =2.1%), since the beginning of 2011, it has entered a period of steady growth. It is expected that the global PCB will maintain a compound growth rate of 3.2% in 2017-2022.
In 2018, the global printed circuit board production value reached 63.6 billion US dollars. According to the data, although Taiwan still wins 31.3% of the global market share in 2018, the proportion of mainland China has reached 23%, and the market share As the growth rate has risen steadily, it has gradually pushed into Taiwan’s leading position. The two together account for 54.3% of the global PCB production value, and sit firmly in the world’s first throne.
Under the impetus of 5G, Internet of Things, and automotive intelligence, the global PCB industry output value will reach 68.81 billion US dollars in 2022.
China is the world’s largest electronics information product manufacturing base and consumer market. A number of globally renowned local companies have emerged in emerging markets such as mobile Internet, Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and driverless vehicles. The electronics manufacturing industry offers more development opportunities. Since 2019, Henan, Beijing, Chengdu, Shenzhen, Jiangxi, Chongqing and other places have introduced action plans or planning plans to support the 5G industry. With the advent of the 5G commercial era, the construction of network infrastructure such as base stations is accelerating, and the requirements for communication materials are higher and the demand for 5G communication equipment will be larger. Major operators will invest more in 5G construction in the future. Therefore, there will be a huge market for communication PCBs in the future. It is estimated that by 2022, China’s PCB output value will exceed 40 billion US dollars, and by 2024, the output value will reach 43.8 billion US dollars, and the market scale is very large.
Second, the downstream application field of the PCB industry
In the field of downstream applications, the fields of communication electronics, consumer electronics and computers have become the three major application areas of PCB. The automotive sector is a long-term growth point for PCBs
1. The mainstream economy has set a time for the fuel vehicle to be banned from the policy.
For a long time, China and the world’s major economies have proposed a clear timetable for exiting fuel truck sales. China’s traditional fuel vehicles will withdraw from the market in 2050. At present, although the pace of countries is not the same, but from the perspective of manufacturers’ actions, global mainstream automobile brands such as Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, FCA Group, etc. are scheduled to be before 2030, China Changan, Beijing Auto, Haima and other brands will time It is set for 2025.
2. Global new energy vehicles still have 40 times space.
In 2018, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles in the world exceeded 2 million, with a penetration rate of 2.3%. If the global suspension of fuel vehicles in 2050, there is still 40 times room for development. According to the data, the growth rate of the first half of the world in 2019 is still over 50%. China is the absolute main force of new energy vehicles, and its current global share is over 50%. China has taken the development of new energy vehicles as an important strategic direction. Several planning documents have proposed the development goals of new energy vehicles: by 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million units, accounting for 6%. 7%; by 2025, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 5-7 million units, accounting for 15%-20%; by 2030, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles will be 15 million units, accounting for 40%.
3. The trend of intelligent car is obvious.
As the automobile develops into a high-tech product of intelligence, informationization and mechatronics, electronic technology has been widely used in automobiles, whether it is an engine system, a chassis system, a control system, a safety system, an information system, an interior environment system. Electronic technology products are used without exception, and the higher the proportion of higher-order cars, the current cost of automotive electronics in mid-to-high-end cars is 28%, and that of new energy vehicles is 47%.
4. The automotive PCB market still has more than 4 times the space.
In 2018, the global automotive PCB market space is about 6.355 billion US dollars, and the global bicycle average PCB usage is about 0.52 square meters. From the perspective of long-term 20-30 years, new energy vehicles and automotive electronics will push up PCB usage by 4-5. More than double, or will surpass the existing communications sector.
Third, the PCB industry competition pattern
The PCB industry is in a backward position in the entire industrial chain. The upstream is mainly fiberglass cloth, copper foil, copper clad laminates and other industries. The downstream is consumer electronics, communication equipment and other manufacturers. From the perspective of 2018, the global TOP10 PCB concentration is 33%, there is no mainland PCB manufacturer in the TOP10 in the global PCB ranking in 2018, Taiwanese manufacturers occupy half of the TOP10.
From the perspective of the entire industrial chain, PCB concentration is not high, and the concentration of TOP10 in the upstream raw materials field and downstream application areas is generally higher than 70%, which is mainly due to environmental protection restrictions, downstream industry supporting concentration, and low technical barriers. decided together.
Fourth, the development trend of the PCB industry
1. Increased production automation and production mode change
The PCB industry is a labor-intensive industry. With the increase of labor costs, enterprises will gradually carry out industrial automation transformation, and gradually shift from the manual operation mode to the automation equipment production mode.
2. The policy continues to be introduced, and the market has huge room for development.
Electronic information is a strategic pillar industry in China’s key development. As a basic product of electronic products, the printed circuit board is vigorously developed by national policies to promote and guide the sound development of the printed electronic board industry.
3. Automotive electronics promotes rapid growth in PCB demand
The application field of PCB covers almost all electronic products and is an indispensable basic component in modern electronic equipment. The rapid growth of automotive electronics has led to a multiplier increase in the demand for automotive PCBs.
4. Pollutant treatment, processing and production to environmental protection
With the prominence of ecological and environmental issues, the concept of green environmental protection has gained consensus in the electronics industry. Under the strict environmental protection standards, enterprises need to establish a more perfect environmental protection system. In the future, the sustainable development of the industry, the future industry processing and production will be developed in the direction of environmental protection.