Communication equipment
Communication equipment, 76 companies, with a total market value of 750 billion, pe57.
The index has been quite weak in recent years. It reached a peak of 6500 in 2015 and fell below 2000 at the end of 2018. The peak in recent years has stopped at 3800 for three times. It has fallen back to 2300 in February this year, only slightly higher than 2000 at the end of 2018, which shows the insipidity of the index. Only by reviewing the longer history can we find out its glorious era. In 2012, a shares were still struggling in the bear market as a whole, but communication equipment strengthened due to the upward trend of the industry cycle, continued to rise in 2013, and then soared with the help of the leveraged bull market. From 2012 to 2015, the index soared from 600 to 6000, which is its highest light era.
Looking back on these years and its highlights, we want to show that an era of excessive highlights may overdraft in the next few years. Even if the industry cycle ushers in another round of rise in recent years, it is difficult for the stock market to stir waves.
At the same time, let’s look at the fundamentals. How is China’s communication infrastructure located globally? Is it a priority? Of course. We have not only completed the global anti overtaking of this industry in the 4G era, but also led the world in the 5g era. This is not the future, but already. Huawei’s leading role in science and technology is indispensable. China’s national strategy attaches great importance to communication and invests heavily. China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom are indispensable. In the process of China’s communication from backwardness, catching up and catching up, it has achieved great development opportunities for the industry. All of them have happened, and their golden growth era has basically ended.
Some people may think that with the rapid development of communication technology, 5g has only reached the midfield, and many foreign countries have even just started. 6G is not far away in the future. With the development of Internet of things, artificial intelligence and cloud, there is still a huge space for the development of communication infrastructure! However, I personally do not support this expectation, and it is difficult for me to give you an accurate statement with technical analysis. Only in the comprehensive judgment and prediction, these technologies or some communication technologies we have not seen will certainly be upgraded from generation to generation, but the communication infrastructure that basically meets the needs of modern society has been completed, In the future, there may be more iterative development in the direction of software, and there may be more upgrading of hardware in the base station. However, it is difficult to meet the demand enough to support the rapid growth of the whole communication equipment industry for many years. In addition, the communication equipment industry is an intermediate equipment manufacturing industry. For telecom operators, namely “party a”, the communication equipment company is “Party B” with weak voice. Therefore, the gross profit and net profit of the industry are at a reasonable or reasonably low level even in the period of strong demand in the past few years.
Today, these companies belong to the “communication network equipment and accessories” in communication equipment, with a total market value of 340 billion, pe45, which is not too high or underestimated. In terms of revenue and profit, ZTE is the dominant company in the sector, and its comparability with other companies is low. Among the comparable companies, the profitability ranks Zhongji xuchuang, xinyisheng, Guangxun technology and xingwangruijie. Three of them are the stocks involved today, that is, the mainstream communication network equipment companies that have ranked in the forefront today.
This segment is a relatively strong segment in communication equipment. It is one of the sectors that recovered rapidly after the stock disaster in 2015. It reached a new high at the end of 2016. It should be the supporting role of the prosperity of the industry. It hit a new high at the end of 2017. In 2018, it fell sharply with the sharp decline of the whole market, and the index fell from 6300 to 3200. Of course, it is a major historical bottom. In the spring of 19, the market doubled and rose to 6300, but after that, it went up and down sharply. In February and July 2020, it formed two big peaks 7800, and then fell mainly. In April this year, the bottom 4500 was found again, and there was a band rising to 6200, and then fell back. At present, 5500, this position was reached in the rise at the end of 2016. Therefore, in terms of the long cycle, for so many years from 2016 to 2021, The subdivided plate index echoes at the same height, and there are all five flavors.
In the above-mentioned historical period, China’s 4G reached its peak, and then rapidly upgraded into the 5g era. Now 5g should enter the midfield. The past few years have also been regarded as the golden age of the communication equipment industry. Generally speaking, the focus of the index has shifted upward, it is quite popular at different stages, and it has also stepped out of a few bull stocks. However, generally speaking, the market strength of this segment is limited, Some already belong to “traditional manufacturing”.
This year, we spent so much time talking about communication equipment and further subdivided communication network equipment and accessories, because the companies investing in this industry mainly invest in the industry. We will give a brief description of the companies below.
Weisheng information
It is committed to reshaping the efficient management of electricity, water, gas and thermal energy with Internet of things technology and providing digital intelligent solutions for fire fighting, parks, communities and cities.
For new shares, we can only assume that (not for it, the financial data of two or three years before the listing of new shares are inevitable for beauty and cosmetic surgery) the data is basically reliable. In addition, it has been listed for two years after all, and its financial data can be used for reference. In recent three years, the revenue has slightly increased by double digits and the deduction is not higher. I hope it is true. The gross profit margin is over 30% and the net profit is 15-20%, The profit structure of a typical equipment supplier cannot be high or too low, such as a few points, but a gross profit of about 30 points. However, when there are homogeneous suppliers and they bargain with each other, they do not abide by such cultural politeness arrangements.
By the way, Weisheng information is mainly the Internet of things, which is a new field. It is not our usual communication. It should belong to another category with the following companies.
Institutions have been interested in it, and what percentage of the fund is allocated.
The secondary market is also too “low-key”. The number of people who pay low-key attention is really too small. They almost shine a picture on the market, then take off their dress, take a few steps down, and then walk into the vast crowd until now.
Overall, it is too dull to give a rating above Samsung.
Star net sharp
Provide information solutions for enterprise customers.
The spin off subsidiary Ruijie network science and technology innovation board is listed, and the latest situation is to suspend the audit. Is this split listing good or bad? Increase financing development companies, but we have to dilute the equity and reduce the proportion of future profits. Moreover, if the development potential of the company is to spin off subsidiaries in the future and the other businesses of the parent company are flat, the valuation of the parent company is often low, which is well understood. If we are optimistic about its subsidiaries as the main contributors, it is better to directly invest in subsidiaries. The Research Report of the company often focuses on its subsidiaries and quotes a paragraph: according to IDC data, in 2020, the domestic market share of Ruijie Network Ethernet switch of the subsidiary was the third, and the domestic market share of enterprise terminal VDI was the first; Shengteng information thin client market accounts for 31.8%, ranking first in Asia Pacific market share for nine consecutive years, and ranking first in China with 39.9% market share.
According to the company’s operating data, the revenue has stood still in the past three years, with rapid growth this year, peaking in 19 years and falling in 20 years, which may be attributed to the epidemic. It has basically recovered and increased this year.
The institutional position is only 5%, and the proportion is very low for five consecutive seasons. Before that, it once accounted for 13%. When the institution went, it didn’t mean to come back and walk around.
In terms of share price, from March 19 to March 20, after 15 rose to 50, it fell back to 18 yuan a year, which was not much. It was almost back to the starting point and rebounded to 32, which was the end of the previous bottom. It was quite disappointing that it slowly fell to 22 yuan in the past three years.
It seems that there are still some highlights in the proposed spin off of its subsidiaries. The operating data maintain double-digit growth and the valuation is reduced to 20. The security is OK. It is difficult to predict when it will rise again in the future.
Comprehensively consider giving Samsung a rating above.
Guangxun Technology
Optical communication device.
Let’s talk about it from the super rearview mirror. If anyone can predict the top and bottom of the band, only this stock, the profits at the top and bottom of the band in recent years add up, it is estimated that there is the potential for the richest man.
Judging from the gross profit of more than 20 and the single digit of net profit, the product may belong to the product with low technical content. However, the Research Report talks about the undervalued chip, which is precisely the proof that the chip is also divided into 369 grades, rather than talking about the core must be high-end.
In terms of operation, the average annual revenue in recent three years has increased by 10%, and the deduction of non profits is mainly due to the good increase in 20 years. However, this year is mainly due to the extraordinary performance in the first quarter, which has hit a good bottom. The second and third quarters are not very pleasant. The year-on-year revenue and profits have decreased, and the expectation or expectation of performance can only wait for the fourth quarter report.
The fund reported 12% last year and 5% today. The number of shareholders increased significantly and tended to be retail investors.
The position market value of public funds in the communication industry ranks ninth.
The company’s share price in the secondary market has been talked about in the front. It’s really rare to see such a trend. It needs a strong heart for long-term positions. Fortunately, the current valuation is only more than 20 times, and there should be no big risk.
Comprehensive consideration, give Samsung above rating.
The business situation has been growing slowly for a long time until 2019, which is mainly due to the rapid growth of high-speed optical module business. The eyes of the market are bright. The share price continues to rise from 2019 to 2020. A 6-yuan share has risen to 60 yuan, ten times. You really have to convince Mr. market to respond in time to the company’s performance. Normally, we will veto ten times. However, first, the peak was last July, and second, through more than a year of decline, the valuation has been reduced to less than 30 times, Although we should not give up the peak of 16%, we should not give up our institutions.
The growth of foreign business is good, accounting for up to 80% at present. This is a double-edged sword for companies whose main business is abroad. A shares are often uneasy about companies whose main revenue is abroad. Yes, they are worried about their true and false moisture. Therefore, they are reduced in terms of valuation. As an analysis of the communication equipment industry, the current climax of the development of the domestic market may have passed. Companies that can share a cake in the foreign market are ambitious and hope that this ambition will be transformed into sustained revenue success.
At present, the company has taken the lead in the research and development of high-speed optical modules and silicon optical fields, and has a leading technical position. Driven by self research + acquisition, the company is expected to continue to improve its dominant position in the high-end market. In the future, the company is expected to fully and continuously obtain the head dividend under the dual drive of overseas data communication + domestic telecom service optical module.
Growth is very important for investment. It is the jump in performance that has achieved 2019-2020, which is also the current bonus of the company. Pay close attention to it, but if the growth continues, the company will have a big problem once it falls to a year-on-year and no month on month growth. The growth rate in the first and second quarters of this year has fallen sharply year-on-year, and the revenue and deduction in the third quarter report are actually negative, This can be called a thunderbolt, but the stock price has only fallen sharply for one day, so we can only find some sense of security from the fact that it has been adjusted for more than a year, mainly falling in the last three months, and now at the bottom of several years of decline, that is, the cumulative decline is large, and the valuation is more than 20 times, which is acceptable.
Growth is the hardest truth. At present, we give appropriate patience to the company’s temporary growth difficulties, and because the valuation can be grounded, the risk level is reduced, so we can continue to pay attention to it.
The position market value of public funds in the communication industry ranks sixth.
When it comes to rating, frankly speaking, today’s three companies have the same comprehensive quality, and there is no special challenge, but they are still in harmony. Unexpectedly, I didn’t choose one of them. In the end, after comprehensive consideration, I either didn’t get on Samsung, but finally I chose to give a rating of more than Samsung.